Election Polls in the 19th Presidential Election of Korea

Generally speaking, public opinion polls are used to find out what people are thinking about a certain topic or issue at that particular moment. In the field of elections, opinion polls have widely been adopted to ascertain people’s preference on candidates and political parties since universal suffrage was gradually secured around the world in the 19^th century. The first example of election polls seemed to have been undertaken during the campaign period for the 10^th US presidential election in 1824.

Election polls can reflect the political will and preference of voters and give opportunities to politicians and the government to better respond to the people’s demands. In this way, it can serve as a useful tool and a political forecaster before elections. However, intentionally biased polls can undermine the fairness and transparency of elections by affecting some people’s opinions or voting patterns. These conflicting elements lead to the issue of how to check and moderate such opinion polls during elections.

In Korea, election polls have previously been used in both positive and negative ways. Most basically, it is conducted to determine the level of support for candidates, parties or policies among voters, or which standards people will consider before they choose candidates. It helps candidates or parties prepare and plan relevant strategies for winning elections and how to govern. Secondly, they can be used as a pseudo election campaign method. In other words, candidates may take advantage of election polls for campaigning in illegal ways. They can unfairly manipulate the range of respondent groups, or manipulate questions to ensure favorable results, therefore distorting people’s intention in conjunction with polling agencies. Also, supporters of a certain candidate or political party can use polling as a way of raising people’s awareness of them.

Website for signing up polls

Here are two opposing theories on the effects of election polls on voters. Firstly, a ‘Bandwagon Effect’ occurs when voters are encouraged to back the candidate who is ahead of others. Those who try to fabricate the results in a favorable way to them believe in this effect. On the contrary, there may also be an ‘Underdog Effect’ which is when voters are attracted to a losing candidate out of sympathy. The former one is generally considered more persuasive. In addition, another theory regarding the effect of polling is the creation of complacency among voters. According to this theory, polling that shows a particular candidate or party with a large lead can cause some voters to consider voting a waste of time since they believe the result is a foregone conclusion, depressing turnout.

These three theories are very different in their conclusion, but it seems safe to say that the results of election polls have considerable effects on voters’ decisions. Currently, there is a saying that ‘election polls make the president,’ which shows the growing influence of polls on voters when choosing candidates. Also, election polls have already taken root as a way of electing candidates in intra-party competitions.

However, we should also consider that election polls are not always accurate. We can see two biggest failures in past US presidential elections. In 1948, Republican candidate Thomas Dewey was expected to win a landslide victory over Harry Truman by major polling companies such as Gallup and Roper, but the result was completely the opposite. More recently polls confidently predicted that Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump would lose the elections in 2016. However, we listened to his inauguration speech in January this year.

Current NESDC Chairperson
Kim Yeong-won

Given those circumstances, the Election Survey Deliberation Commissions were established under the Election Commissions in 2014 to secure the fairness and credibility of election polls. The National Election Survey Deliberation Commission (NESDC) is under the NEC and 17 Provincial Committees are under each Provincial Election Commission. The NESDC has eleven Commissioners and are designated by the NEC. Each party with a negotiation group in the National Assembly (at least 20 seats, currently four parties) recommends one member, and the other Commissioners are chosen from a group of scholars, law experts and polling experts.

The main roles of the NESDC are as follows:

Investigate Illegal Election Polls

The NESDC has an authority to gain access to sites related to any poll-related crime, to demand submission of relevant materials, to summon those related to any violation, to take measures on the spot to prevent crimes, and to take possession of evidence from the crime scene.

Register Election Poll Agencies

Every agency which wishes to conduct election polls and to release and report the results must register with the NESDC in advance.

Deliberate on Election Polls & Deal with Complaints about the Results

The NESDC keeps monitoring as many political surveys as possible to check if they are legal. Also, it deals with written complaints about the accuracy or credibility of the polls.

In general, election polls in the 19^th presidential election received little controversy and were seen as fairly accurate. The NESDC was able to ensure that election polls stayed within the law and maintained neutrality.

Author: Kim Sehun (Administration and International Affairs Division)
Editor: Luke Butcher (Administration and International Affairs Division)